Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.223862 0.269778 0.325021 0.397092 0.489682 0.606079 0.765792
2025-06-08 0.166907 0.220223 0.292138 0.398646 0.556655 0.789667 1.173841
2025-06-15 0.131435 0.187122 0.269969 0.407416 0.640806 1.043937 1.851279
2025-06-22 0.105724 0.160815 0.250224 0.414933 0.733520 1.379873 2.980769
2025-06-29 0.083007 0.133253 0.220890 0.397504 0.781280 1.687218 4.470280
2025-07-06 0.058951 0.097770 0.168536 0.319429 0.673041 1.597916 4.916848
2025-07-13 0.049540 0.085872 0.156238 0.318654 0.743246 2.039827 8.023414
2025-07-20 0.043437 0.078672 0.151211 0.332986 0.867562 2.814454 15.123245
2025-07-27 0.038901 0.073491 0.149065 0.354699 1.038424 4.065415 32.407208
2025-08-03 0.034666 0.067967 0.144689 0.369823 1.211381 5.756294 73.156381
2025-08-10 0.030171 0.060898 0.134727 0.365046 1.314979 7.442061 153.969592
2025-08-17 0.026186 0.054159 0.123816 0.352943 1.384690 9.254680 328.428154
2025-08-24 0.023406 0.049932 0.119071 0.362808 1.598731 13.612776 1275.051620
2025-08-31 0.021026 0.046175 0.114628 0.372743 1.848357 20.560265 8496.236401
2025-09-07 0.019119 0.043209 0.111674 0.388193 2.184084 33.230893 279115.600654
2025-09-14 0.017410 0.040395 0.108399 0.401585 2.562161 55.042169 NaN
2025-09-21 0.015442 0.036489 0.100535 0.389827 2.730575 77.722353 NaN
2025-09-28 0.012637 0.029819 0.081984 0.316726 2.201649 61.186010 NaN
2025-10-05 0.011547 0.027772 0.078520 0.318583 2.455810 95.765544 NaN
2025-10-12 0.010820 0.026622 0.077825 0.335201 2.945330 185.979936 NaN
2025-10-19 0.010254 0.025829 0.078206 0.359134 3.654784 433.548299 NaN
2025-10-26 0.009645 0.024791 0.077394 0.376262 4.389836 1050.554831 NaN
2025-11-02 0.008878 0.023133 0.073730 0.372819 4.796189 2080.687179 NaN